{"id":48,"date":"2019-04-11T18:56:03","date_gmt":"2019-04-11T09:56:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asia-prop.com\/?p=48"},"modified":"2022-05-22T17:18:49","modified_gmt":"2022-05-22T08:18:49","slug":"real-estate-crash-before-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/asia-prop.com\/zh\/column\/real-estate-crash-before-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"2020\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5d29\u76d8\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e1c\u4eac\u5965\u8fd0\u4f1a\u662f\u57282013\u5e749\u67087\u65e5\u5728\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u9996\u90fd\u5e03\u5b9c\u8bfa\u65af\u827e\u5229\u65af\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u7b2c125\u5c4a\u56fd\u9645\u5965\u59d4\u4f1a\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u4e1c\u4eac23\u533a\u7684\u571f\u5730\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u6e2f\u533a\u7684\u571f\u5730\u4ef7\u683c\u5374\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e0a\u6da85\uff05\u81f37\uff05\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e1c\u4eac\u7684\u571f\u5730\u4ef7\u683c\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_36_1 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">\u76ee\u5f55<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" style=\"display: none;\"><label for=\"item\" aria-label=\"\u76ee\u5f55\"><span style=\"display: flex;align-items: center;width: 35px;height: 30px;justify-content: center;\"><svg style=\"fill: #999999;color:#999999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999999;color:#999999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" 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href=\"https:\/\/asia-prop.com\/zh\/column\/real-estate-crash-before-2020\/#%E3%81%BE%E3%81%A8%E3%82%81\" title=\"\u6458\u8981\">\u6458\u8981<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/asia-prop.com\/zh\/column\/real-estate-crash-before-2020\/#%E4%BB%8A%E5%BE%8C%E6%B3%A8%E7%9B%AE%E3%81%AE%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E5%85%88%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AF%EF%BC%9F\" title=\"\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\">\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E3%81%AE%E4%B8%8D%E5%8B%95%E7%94%A3%E4%BE%A1%E6%A0%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%82%AA%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%94%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF%E4%BB%A5%E9%99%8D%E5%A4%A7%E3%81%8D%E3%81%AA%E6%88%90%E9%95%B7%E3%81%8C%E6%9C%9B%E3%82%81%E3%81%AA%E3%81%84\"><\/span>\n\n\u5965\u8fd0\u4f1a\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u671f\u663e\u7740\u589e\u957f\n\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a><strong>\u5965\u8fd0\u4f1a\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u9884\u8ba1\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8<\/strong><\/a><strong>..<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong>\u65b0\u516c\u5bd3\u5408\u540c\u7387<\/strong><strong>TP1T 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href=\"https:\/\/www.fudousankeizai.co.jp\/mansion\">https:\/\/www.fudousankeizai.co.jp\/mansion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E3%81%AE%E4%B8%8D%E5%8B%95%E7%94%A3%E4%BE%A1%E6%A0%BC%E4%B8%8A%E6%98%87%E3%81%8C%E8%A6%8B%E8%BE%BC%E3%82%81%E3%81%AA%E3%81%84%E6%A0%B9%E6%9C%AC%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AA%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C\"><\/span><strong>\u65e5\u672c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6839\u672c\u95ee\u9898<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u57282020\u5e74\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u671f\u671b\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u57282020\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u4e0a\u6da8\uff1f\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u9762\u4e34\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u95ee\u9898<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong>\uff081\uff09\u5c06\u5efa\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u516c\u5bd3\u5927\u697c\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u7ee7\u627f\u3002<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u65e5\u672c\u7ee7\u627f\u7a0e\u6cd5\uff0c\u7ee7\u627f\u7a0e\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u7ee7\u627f\u8d22\u4ea7\u4e58\u4ee5\u7ee7\u627f\u7a0e\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u964d\u4f4e\u7ee7\u627f\u8d22\u4ea7\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u4f1a\u8282\u7701\u7a0e\u6b3e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u67092\u4ebf\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0c\u5219\u5047\u5b9a\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684100\uff05\u7ee7\u627f\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3a2\u4ebf\u65e5\u5143\u3002\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u8d2d\u4e70\u4ef7\u503c7,000\u4e07\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u516c\u5bd3\u548c\u4ef7\u503c2\u4ebf\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u503c1\u4ebf\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u571f\u5730\uff0c\u5219\u9057\u4ea7\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ea6\u4e3a1\u4ebf\u65e5\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e70\u623f\u5b50\u8981\u6bd4\u73b0\u91d1\u62e5\u6709\u8981\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u90fd\u63d0\u53d6\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5229\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u63a5\u53d7\u516c\u5bd3\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u8fd9\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u516c\u5bd3\u548c\u79df\u8d41\u623f\u5c4b\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong>\u2461\u5904\u7f6e\u4ece\u5a74\u513f\u6f6e\u4e00\u4ee3\u7ee7\u627f\u800c\u6765\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u3002<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9884\u8ba1\u6574\u4e2a\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e1c\u4eac\u7684\u7a7a\u7f3a\u7387\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5a74\u513f\u6f6e\u4e00\u4ee3\u7ee7\u627f\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u95ee\u9898<\/strong>\u5c06\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5a74\u513f\u6f6e\u4e00\u4ee3\u73b0\u5728\u5927\u7ea670\u5c81\uff0c\u4e00\u5e74\u7ea7\u6709250\u4e07\u4e2a\u5e74\u7ea7\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709100\u4e07\u3002 2025\u5e74\uff0c\u5a74\u513f\u6f6e\u4e00\u4ee3\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\uff0c\u7ee7\u627f\u7684\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u91ce\u6751\u7efc\u5408\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e862023\u5e7421.1%\uff0c2028\u5e7425.7%\u548c2033\u5e7430.4%\u7684\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\uff082166\u4e07\u7a7a\u7f6e\u623f\u5c4b\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u7684\u623f\u95f4\u52302033\u5e74\u5c06\u7a7a\u7f6e<\/strong>\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u54ea\u4e2a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6240\u6709\u8005\u79df\u8d41\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u79df\u91d1\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u6839\u636e\u79df\u91d1\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong>\u24622022\u5e74\uff0c\u5c06\u51fa\u552e\u7eff\u5730\uff0c\u5e76\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u63d0\u4f9b\u5927\u91cf\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u3002<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u751f\u4ea7\u7eff\u8272\u7a7a\u95f4\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e1c\u4eac\u7b49\u56fa\u5b9a\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u571f\u5730\uff0c\u7ecf\u8425\u519c\u4e1a\u65f6\uff0c\u56fa\u5b9a\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u7eb3\u7a0e\u3002\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e8e1991\u5e74\u542f\u52a8\uff0c\u8ba4\u8bc1\u7684\u7eff\u8272\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u6548\u671f\u4e3a30\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u90a3\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u4ece2022\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u5c06\u5f00\u59cb\u91ca\u653e\u7eff\u8272\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e8e2017\u5e746\u6708\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u7ecf\u4fee\u8ba2\u7684\u300a\u7eff\u8272\u7a7a\u95f4\u6cd5\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>[\u5982\u679c\u57282022\u5e74\u5168\u90e8\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u9010\u6e10\u6210\u4e3a\u4f4f\u5b85\u7528\u5730]<\/strong>\u5b83\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bcf10\u5e74\u7ee7\u7eed\u6307\u5b9a\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4f46\u6761\u4ef6\u662f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u6709\u8005\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6b63\u5728\u8015\u79cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u9f84\u5df2\u7ecf<\/strong><strong>66\u30026\u5e74<\/strong>\u662f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f53\u519c\u6c11\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quote\uff1a\u519c\u6797\u6c34\u4ea7\u7701<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.maff.go.jp\/j\/tokei\/sihyo\/data\/08.html\">http:\/\/www.maff.go.jp\/j\/tokei\/sihyo\/data\/08.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E3%81%BE%E3%81%A8%E3%82%81\"><\/span><strong>\u6458\u8981<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u65e5\u672c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65b0\u5efa\u516c\u5bd3\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u7ee7\u627f\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\uff0c\u7eff\u8272\u7a7a\u95f4\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6613\u4e8e\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u60a8\u4e0d\u518d\u9700\u8981\u575a\u6301\u65e5\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%BB%8A%E5%BE%8C%E6%B3%A8%E7%9B%AE%E3%81%AE%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E5%85%88%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AF%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span><strong>\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/strong><span 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style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/asia-prop.com\/zh\/column\/property-status\/for-sale\/\">\u70b9\u51fb\u6b64\u5904\u67e5\u770b\u80e1\u5fd7\u660e\u5e02\u5f85\u552e\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5217\u8868<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 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